股票怎么分析？英文双语对照

基本分析和技术分析 　 

     投资者分析市场及个股一般采用基本分析和技术分析两种分析方法. 所谓基本分析通俗地讲就是要撇开技术分析的表象,抓住上市公司的基本面,以确定公司股票的内在价值,这是一种建筑于未来,这具有很大的不确定性, 比如说目前市场上的成长性概念对于今后能在多高的增长速度上持续多长的时间其实有很多时候并不能够精确地估计.

　　　在实际操作中基本分析也面临市场效率问题的困绕,即" 只有市场才是正确的",一方面市场可能在很长时间内不去承认基本分析所发现的潜在价值, 另一方面当所计算出的价值偏离股价波动范围时会是投资者出现两难选择, 要么使自己完全丧失买进自己认为有价值的股票的机会,要么过早地退出了强势的拉升阶段.事实上,学术界早已作出判断,在使投资者获得高于市场平均利润率方面, 基本分析并不比技术分析高明.

　　　与基本分析相比 ,技术分析则相信投资大众整体上的心理行为,具有某种可重复的行为模式,只要预测其他投资者将会如何行动,抢先下手, 便能带来利润.技术分析就是要透过股价的历史轨迹,寻找一些有形的证据来预测股价未来的走势以及买卖的时机.同时在投资实践中,技术分析带来的问题也相当多, 例如技术分析给出失误不精确,钝化,以及某些技术指标给出假信号等. 如在技术测试指标方面建树颇多的韦特从早期大力提倡使用测试工具到后期全盘推翻, 推出以顺势而为为核心的亚当理论,这一例子足以说明技术分析本身存在着不少缺陷.

　　　事实上技术分析也有其优点,对于股价走势包含了以公开的或未公开的重要信息,这一技术分析的要点让许多投资者获益不少.但在市场上获利的角度看,技术分析和基本分析都有其价值,但又都只能在一定程度上有效,基本分析以长线见长, 决窍是减少判断的次数,而必须尽力对上市公司的每一次判断都是正确的,以承担对公司判断失误的风险去代替对市场判断失误的风险;技术分析以中短线见长,主要是通过作波段来获取利润,最后积少成多.最后我们建议投资者对两种分析方法都不能过于迷信或彻底否定,在选股时则可以更多地利用基本分析的方法,而在选择进出时机时可以更多地选择技术分析的方法。

技术分析与实战 是这样的,市场行为包容一切,理论道理需要先搞懂悟透,要真正很好的转化成自己帐户里的利润,最终还是要回归实战中去,体现在买卖的质量和高效上.

市场行为客观的体现和量化,就表现为盘口买卖,分时,成交量,然后画出K线,衍生出均线,形态,等各种指标,所以政策,经济,公司发生了变故时这些因素会把一切及时准确的反应给有心人的.

技术分析就是分析这些因素,找到其中内在本质共性的规律,确认对手盘必经的"华容道"在那里.在明确的信号出现后,客观的应对,

由于规律是有普遍性和永久存在的,而不管中外,不管股市,期市,汇市,不管年,月,周,日,分时,都是由K线组成的,所以都有着共性简单的运行模式和规律,都有着共性简单的起涨起跌点, 用大周期来解释千点行情,用一分钟线和盘口来解释任意一点的波动

都是K线图表嘛,完美的行情都有着完美的形态,K线组合,行云流水般的运行轨迹,清晰明确的启动点,

管她是股票图还是期货品种图,管她是港股美股,管她是年线还是一分钟线,也不需知道她叫啥名,总之能看懂得,一切都是自然和谐的完美和符合规律情理

我现在很懒,几乎只看图表在操作,因为这里面告诉了我足够的信息; 我也很贪,总想今天买完明天就赚,连一天调整都不想忍受,由于自身各方面的缺陷做的还不是很好,但我很轻松,因为那简单本质共性的规律早在我脑海里很清晰已经转化成了感觉,简化可操作目标,从容进场,我用的是日线的单根K线和组合,结合形态位置成交量在操作,但操作的每一只股,都会从以前的各周期图表中找到大成功的影子,  如果资金的限制,那以后会放长到连一周调整都不想忍受,连一月调整都不想忍受,但道理一定是相同的,也就是大处能解释千点行情,细微处基本可以解释任意一点的波动 　

 基本面分析主要分析公司的小环境,大环境的情况太过复杂,判断大环境主要用“股票的大市”。美国著名的基金管理专家彼得林奇曾发表看法：“我每年花在经济大势上的分析时间不超出十五分钟”。大环境的变化是谈天的好材料,用来炒股的实用性不大。大的政治动乱和经济震荡当然例外。研究小环境中公司的经营情况是必要的。以我自己的经验,如果只靠自己图来炒股票,不知公司到底是干什么的和干的怎么样,心里虚得很。研究公司的经营情况必须具备一点会计的常识,能看懂公司的财务报表。但这里面的游戏也很复杂。以销售收入而言,公司是怎样计算销售收入的？有些公司卖货后收到钱才算收入,有些发了货就算收入,更有些把订单都算在内。发了货能否收到钱是个问题,订单也有可能被取消。固定资产怎样算也有学问。有些老工厂在纸面上还值不少钱,而实际上那些旧机器送人都没人要,你说固定资产是多少？按通常的买价减去折旧来算固定资产,得到的数字可能很漂亮,其实没多大意义。读者们在研读财务报告时,必须留意这些细节。

　　 导致股价上涨的三因素

　　 虽然引起股价增长的因素很多,但最重要的是盈利及盈利增长。这个理由是明显的,不赚钱的公司要来做什么？下面让我们看看三个最重要的影响股价的因素：

　　 1 、盈利的增长

　　 成本收益比率是很重要的概念,即股价 / 收益所得到的数额。但我发觉新手们常常过于注重成本收益比率,他们把它当成股价是否偏宜的衡量标准。这种概念从根本上来说是对的,但在炒股上实用性不大。美国的微软公司上市初期,成本收益比率超过 100 ,就是今天,它也超过 50 。十三年前你买了 1 万美元微软的股票,今天就是百万富翁。一个健康、发展迅速的公司,其盈利必定逐年增长。这个增长的速度越快越好。一个公司的盈利若能以每个 25% 的速度增长,那么三年就能将盈利翻一倍。盈利增长的速度必须建立在合理的数字上。去年每股赚了 1 分钱,今年 2 分钱,盈利增长了 100% ,但这个数字是没有意义的。如果公司的盈利从每股 5 角升到 1 元,这个 100% 的盈利增长定将使投资大众的眼睛发亮。盈利增长的前提是销售收入的增长。一个公司的销售收入如果无法增长,盈利增长通常是玩会计游戏的结果,对这一点读者们要留意。另一必须留意的是销售收入增长的速度和盈利增长速度的关系。公司的营业额由 1 亿元升到 2 亿元, 100% 的增长率。但盈利只从 5 角升到 6 角, 20% 的增长。这时要好好调查一下为什么？是不是同类产品多了竞争者,公司只好削价求售？虽然营业额不错,但收益率却降低了！如果是这样的话,这只股票的升幅也就有限了。最使市场注目的盈利的加速增长。一个每年盈利增长 25% 的公司突然将增长速度提高到 40% ,甚至 50% ,这通常铺好了股价成倍上翻的道路。

　　 2 、新产品

　　 如果有家公司发明了根治癌症的新药,你可以想像这家公司的前景。新产品提供了公司快速增长盈利的可能。这类例子很多,如：

　　 美国的新态公司在 1963 年发明了口服避孕药,结果其股价在六个月内翻了五倍。王安电脑因为其新型的文字处理机,在 1978 年至 1980 年间,公司股价升了十三倍。快餐店的概念成形初期,麦当劳公司的股价在 1967 年至 1971 年的四年间翻了十一倍。新产品并不局限于“实物”,可以是新的生意概念,新的推销手法,新的管理方式。

　　 3、公司回购自身股票

如果公司购回自身股票,这是好消息。公司购回自身股票是对本公司投信任票。通常来讲,公司只有在认为股票的股价水平不反映公司价值时才会这么做。同时,回购股票使流通的股票量减少,在相同的盈利总数下,每股的盈利数字就增加了。这就起到降低成本收益比率的作用。另外值得留意的是公司股票总流通量的数目,数目越大,股票上升的步伐就越难迈开,因为需要大的买压才能推动价格上升。

Divide analyse and technical analysis basically? ?

? ? ? ? Investor analysis market and use fundamental analysis and technology to analyse method of two kinds of analysises commonly. Alleged and fundamental analysis is told popularly even if want the idea that bypass technology analyses, capture appear on the market the main area of the company, in order to determine the intrinsic value of company stock, this is a kind of building at future, this has very big uncertainty, for example at present the concept is opposite the growing sex on the market to will be in henceforth much faster growth lasts on speed how long time has a lot of time actually and cannot estimate accurately.

Analyse what also face market efficiency problem basically in be operated actually to beset, namely " has the market only just is correct " , on one hand the potential value that the market may not admit to analyse a discovery basically inside a long time, the value deviate share price that gives when place computation on the other hand can be choice of investor occurrence face difficult choice when fluctuant limits, or makes he loses him average completely to think the opportunity of valuable stock, premature ground exited or to play litre of stage strongly. In fact, academia makes judgement already, in make investor acquires prep above market respect of average profit margin, be analysed basically and do not analyse than the technology brillant.

Compare with fundamental analysis photograph, technical analysis believes to invest the psychological behavior on masses whole, have some to plant but reduplicative behavior mode, want to forecast other investor how to will act only, do it first, can bring profit. The technology is analysed even if want to pass through the historical contrail of share price, the testimony that seeks a few materiality will forecast the takes situation and business turn of share price future. In investing practice at the same time, the issue that technical analysis brings is many also, for example technical analysis gives out error is not mathematical, passivation, and certain technology index gives out false signal. If index respect checks to make a contribution quite much Wei Te in the technology from inchoate advocate use test tool to be overthrown to later period overall energetically, roll out the with take advantage of an opportunity Adam theory to be core, itself of analysis of technology of specification of enough of this one example is existing many blemish.

In fact technical analysis also has its advantage, go to share price situation included with what make public or not public important information, the point that this one technology analyses makes a lot of investor benefit not little. But the angle that gains profit in the market looks, technical analysis and fundamental analysis have its value, but can go up in certain level only again effective, fundamental analysis with long term be good at, trick is the number that reduces judgement, and must endeavor to appearing on the market the every time judgement of the company is correct, the risk; technology that replace pair of markets to judge error in order to assume to the risk of company judgement error is analysed with in short line be good at, basically be to pass wave band to get profit, final many a little makes a mickle. We suggest investor analyses a method to two kinds finally cannot too superstitious or thoroughly negative, choosing when the method that can use fundamental analysis morely, and the method that can choose a technology morely to analyse when choosing opportune moment of pass in and out.

Technical analysis and actual combat? Be such, market action includes everything, theoretical argument need is done first understand realize fully, should truly very good change into the profit in him account, in still wanting finally to return to actual combat, go, body is mixed in the quality of buying and selling now efficient on.

Market action is reflected objectively and quantify, it is dish of mouth buying and selling with respect to expression, time-sharing, clinch a deal quantity, draw K line next, derive all line, configuration, wait for all sorts of index, so policy, economy, these elements when the company produced an unforeseen event can give an observant and conscientious person all seasonable and accurate response.

The technology is analysed even if analyse these elements, find among them the rule of immanent and substaintial general character, affirm adversary dish need the " of path of " Hua Rong of classics is over there. After clear signal appears, answer objectively,

Because the law has catholicity and permanent presence, and without giving thought to China and foreign countries, without giving thought to the stock market, period city, collect city, without giving thought to year, month, , day, time-sharing, comprise by K line, having the operation pattern with simple general character and law so, having general character to rise simply go up case drop dot, will explain 1000 spot prices with old cycle, with a minute the line is mixed dish the mouth will explain a bit more aleatoric wave motion

Be K line chart, perfect prices is having perfect pattern, k group closes, the moving contrail like natural and smooth writing, the clear and specific feature that start,

Be in charge of her is stock plan or futures breed graph, be in charge of her is harbor US stock, be in charge of her is year of line or a minute of line, also do not need to know she calls what the name, anyhow can be understood, everything is natural harmony is perfect and accord with regular reason

I am very lazy now, see chart be in only almost operation, because I told enough information; I am very corrupt also inside this, always want to be bought today will earn tomorrow, adjust even a day do not want to bear, as a result of oneself the blemish of each respect does still not be very good, but I am very relaxed, because that is simple and substaintial the pattern of general character is early very clear in my brain had changed into the feeling, simplify can handle an end, enter the arena leisurely, what I use is the line of odd root K of day of line and combination, combinative configuration position clinchs a deal the quantity is being operated, but each of the operation, metropolis the sign that finds great success from inside the each cycle chart previously, ? ? If the limitation of capital, can put after that grow to adjust even a week do not want to bear, adjusted in January repeatedly do not want to bear, but the truth is identical certainly, be in greatly namely can explain 1000 bits of prices, fine point can explain a bit more aleatoric wave motion basically

? Main area analyses the microenvironment that basically analyses a company, the circumstance of big environment too too complex, judgement big environment basically is used " the big city of the stock " . Those of the United States' famous fund administration expert gets Lynch to ever expressed a view: "I spend the analytic time on economic general trends every year to be not exceeded 15 minutes " . The change of big environment is the good stuff that chat, with will fry practical not quite. Big political convulsion and economic concussion are exceptional of course. The management circumstance of the company in studying microenvironment is necessary. With the experience of myself, if rely on him graph to fry a stock only, dry what telling a company after all is with what work how, the empty in the heart is gotten very. The management situation that studies a company must have common sense of a bit fiscal, can understand the financial forms for reporting statistics of the company. But the play inside this is very complex also. With sales revenue character, is the company how to be calculated of sales revenue? Qian Cai is received to calculate income after some companies sell goods, some sent goods to calculate income, more some calculate order inside. Sent money whether getting money is a problem, order is cancelled likely also. How does fixed assets calculate also have knowledge. A little old plant still is worth many money on paper face, and actually those old machines send a person nobody wants, do you say how much fixed assets is? By normally purchase price subtracts depreciation will calculate fixed assets, gotten number may be very beautiful, do not have much great sense actually. Readers are ongoing when reading financial report, must advertent these detail.

Bring about the 3 elements that share price rises

The element that although cause share price,grows is very much, but the most important is gain and profit growth. This reason is apparent, unprofitable company should be done? We let see 3 the mainest factors that affect share price below:

The growth of 1, gain

Cost gains rate is very main idea, namely share price / the number that earnings gains reachs. But my disclosure novices often pay attention to cost gains rate too, they regard it as whether does share price slant of appropriate measure a level. This kind of concept from come up at all saying is right, but frying on practical not quite. American Microsoft appears on the market earlier, cost gains rate exceeds 100, it is today, it also exceeds 50. You bought the share of Microsoft of 10 thousand dollar 13 years ago, today is millionaire. The company with a health, rapid development, sure year after year increases its profit. The speed of this growth has been jumped over more quickly. If the gain of a company can grow with every speed of 25% , can reverse gain 3 years one times so. The rate that profit increases must be built go up in reasonable number. Every earned 1 minute of money last year, this year 2 minutes of money, profit grew 100% , but this number is no point. If the profit of the company rises 1 yuan from every 5 horn, this profit growth of 100% will make invest popular eye to shine surely. The premise that profit grows is the growth of sales revenue. If the sales revenue of a company cannot grow, profit growth is the result that plays accountant game normally, want to this readers advertent. Another must the speed that advertent is sales revenue growth and the concern that profit increases rate. The turnover of the company rises 200 million yuan by 100 million yuan, the increase rate of 100% . But profit rises 6 role from 5 horn only, the growth of 20% . Should investigate well at this moment why? Congener product is much competitor, is the company forced does lower the price beg carry out? Although turnover is pretty good, but yield was reduced however! If so if, of this stock litre finite also. Most of the gain that makes the market is fixed eyes on grow quickly. Annual the company that profit grows 25% raises growth rate suddenly 40% , even 50% , this has paved the way that breaks up on share price twice normally.

2, new product

If a company sends palpability to effect a radical cure the new drug of cancer, you can envisage the foreground of this company. New product offerred a company to increase the likelihood of gain quickly. This kind of example is very much, be like:

New state company of the United States invented prophylactic of profess to convinced 1963, as a result its share price is in 6 months varus fivefold. Wang An computer because its new-style word processor, came 1978 between 1980, company share price rose 13 times. The notional figuration of snack inn is earlier, the share price of Mcdonald's company came 4 years of 1971 1967 broke up elevenfold. New product not bureau be confined to " objective " , can be new business idea, promote skill newly, new administrative way.

3, the company counter-purchases oneself stock

If the company buys an oneself share, this is good news. It is right that the company buys an oneself share our company send trustful bill. Will tell normally, the company just is met when thinking the share price level of the stock does not reflect company value only so do. In the meantime, the stock volume that counter-purchases stock mobilize decreases, below same profit number, every profit figure increased. This rises to reduce the effect of cost gains rate. Additionally worth while and advertent is the amount of company stock total turnover, number is larger, the pace that the stock rises is stridden harder, because need is bought greatly,press ability to drive the price to rise.