康波理论原文？英文双语对照

康德拉基耶夫长波周期。康德拉季耶夫(NikolaiDimitrievichKondratiev，1892—1941)是十月革命前后都很活跃的俄国学者，作为国际知名的经济学家，他的声誉主要来自长波理论。

所谓“长波”指的是经济成长过程中上升与衰退交替出现的一种周期性波动。 由于康德拉季耶夫观察到的周期比人们观察到的另外两种经济波动的周期“尤格拉周期”和“基钦周期”明显要长，所以被叫做长波或者长周期。

在康德拉季耶夫以前，人们已经注意到经济发展过程中长时段的繁荣与萧条的交替存在着某种规律性。第一次世界大战期间，一些经济学家已经提出过长周期的设想。 康德拉季耶夫的贡献在于用大量经验统计数据检验了长周期的设想，从而使之成为了一种比较系统的周期理论。

因此，1939年经由熊彼特提议，世界经济学界都接受了用“康德拉季耶夫周期”这一术语指称经济成长过程中长时段的波动。康德拉季耶夫的长波理论最早见于1919—1920年完成(1922年出版)的《战时及战后时期世界经济及其波动》一书，此后，关于长波理论他又先后发表了《经济生活中的长波》(1925年)和《大经济周期》(1928年)等论著。

在这些论著中，他分析了英、法、美、德以及世界经济的大量统计数据，发现发达商品经济中存在着为期54年的周期性波动。按他的研究，世界经济中的第一次长波从18世纪80年代末90年代初开始，至1810—1817年为上升期，1810—1817年至1844—1851年为衰落期；第二次长波开始于1844—1851年，从那时起到1870—1875年为上升期，1870—1875年至1890—1896年为衰落期；第三次长波开始于1890—1896年，至1915—1920年为上升期，而衰落期则开始于1914—1920年间，到他著书之时第三次长波的衰落期仍在继续。

在50年左右的周期中，一般说头15年是衰退期；接着20年是大量再投资期，在此期间新技术不断采用，经济发展快，显示出一派兴旺景象；其后10年是过度建设期，过度建设的结果是5~10年的混乱期，从而导致下一次大衰退的出现。

熊彼特等人后来继承和发展了长波理论，并重新确定了资本主义经济三次长周期的起止时间。 熊彼特在1934年英译版的《经济发展理论》中对三次长周期的分期为：(1)“长波”I——从大约1783年到1842年，是所谓“产业革命时期”，这个周期的基本特征是手工制造或工场制造的蒸汽机逐步推广到一切工业部门和工业国家。

(2)“长波”II——从1842年到1897年，是所谓“蒸汽和钢铁时代”或“铁路化时代”，其特征是机器制造的蒸汽机成为主要的动力机，并得到普及。 (3)“长波”IlI——从1897年开始(当时这个“长波”尚未最后结束)，是所谓“电气、化学和汽车时代”，其特征是电动机和内燃机在一切工业部门中的普遍应用。

康德拉季耶夫的理论用计量经济学方法确定了长周期的长短，从经验上描述了每个周期中上升和下降阶段的表现。不过，虽然康德拉季耶夫猜测长波的存在与科技革命浪潮有关，但对长波出现的原因却没有给出令人信服的解释，特别是20世纪80年代以来，使用新数据和新技巧的计量经济学研究无法确定长波是否真的存在，这使长波理论带有显著的经验假说性质。

非常有意思的是，世界上有许多人试图解释长周期存在的原因，提出的猜想五花八门，无奇不有。例如，有人认为长周期的存在和太阳黑子活动的周期有关，有人则认为跟人的世代交替有关，还有人认为跟厂房和设备的更新周期有关，人们还可以猜想长周期跟专利保护的年限有关，从理论上讲，宏观范围内的任何周期都对长周期有或多或少的影响。

熊彼特曾试图用他的创新理论对长周期给出了一个系统的解释，但创新理论无法解释为什么一个周期是55年而不是75年。

Kangdelajiyefu the long wave is periodic. Kangdelajiyefu (NikolaiDimitrievichKondratiev, 1892, 1941) is the Russian learned man with October revolution very active around, regard international as noted economist, his fame basically comes from long wave theory.

Alleged " long wave " those who point to is a kind of when economy rises to appear alternately with decline in growing process periodic wave motion. The cycle of additionally two kinds of economic fluctuation that because health heart plays the cycle that season Ye husband observes,observe than people " Yougela is periodic " and " base admire is periodic " should grow apparently, be called a long wave to perhaps grow cycle so.

It is before Kangdelajiyefu, the prosperity that people has noticed to economy grows period of time in development process and flat alternant existence are worn some kind of regularity. During the the First World War, a few economist had put forward to grow periodic tentative plan. Kangdelajiyefu's contribution depends on using data of much experience statistic to examine to grow periodic tentative plan, the became a kind to compare a system cycle that makes thereby is academic.

Accordingly, by rebuked those offers especially 1939, the bound accepted world economics to use " Kangdelajiyefu is periodic " the wave motion that this one term points to to period of time grows in weighing economic growing course. Long wave theory of Kangdelajiyefu sees the earliest at 1919, finished 1920 (published 1922) " war reach Ji Jibo of economy of afterwar period world to move " one book, after this, about long wave theory he was published early or late again " the long wave in economic life " (1925) and " old economy is periodic " (1928) wait for treatise.

In these treatise, he was analysed flower, the many statistic data of law, beautiful, heart and world economy, discovery develops the periodic wave motion that there is by a definite date 54 years in goods economy. Press his research, the first time long wave in world economy from 18 centuries 80 time end begins at the beginning of 90 time, to 1810, was 1817 rise period, 1810, came 1817 1844, was period of be on the wane 1851; Wave of the 2nd subaltern begins at 1844, 1851, arrive since thenceforth 1870, was 1875 rise period, 1870, came 1875 1890, was period of be on the wane 1896; Wave of the 3rd subaltern begins at 1890, 1896, to 1915, was 1920 rise period, and period of be on the wane begins at 1914, between 1920, write a book to him when the be on the wane of wave of the 3rd subaltern period still continueing.

In the cycle that controls 50 years, say the head is winter 15 years commonly; It is a large number of reinvest 20 years then period, new during this technology is used ceaselessly, economic development is rapid, show one group flourishing picture; It is excessive construction 10 years ever since period, the result of excessive construction is 5~10 year disorder period, bring about what ebb greatly the next time to appear thereby.

The person such as Xiong Bite accedes later and developed long wave theory, decided 3 subaltern have the capitalist economy periodicly afresh stop time. Xiong Bite is in 1934 of flower interpret edition " economic progress theory " in periodic to 3 subaltern it is in installment: (1) " long wave " I -- from arrived 1783 about 1842, it is alleged " industrial revolution period " , this periodic main feature is handcrafted or the steamer that workshop makes popularizes all industrial departments and industrial state home stage by stage.

(2) " long wave " II -- arrive from 1842 1897, it is alleged " vapour and steely times " or " railroad spends a period " , its feature is the steamer that the machine makes makes main dynamical machine, get popular. (3) " long wave " IlI -- begin from 1897 (at that time this " long wave " have not end) finally, it is alleged " electric, chemistry and car times " , its feature is the general application of electromotor and internal-combustion engine in all industrial departments.

Kangdelajiyefu's theory defined the accident of long cycle with econometrics method, rise from inside every cycle was described on experience and drop the expression of level. Nevertheless, although Kangdelajiyefu guesses the existence of the long wave and tide of revolution of science and technology are concerned, but the reason that appears to the long wave did not give out however the explanation of be convinced making a person, especially 20 centuries since 80 time, the econometrics that uses new data and new skill considers that he cannot decide whether the long wave exists really, this makes long wave theory contains remarkable experience hypothesis character.

Very interesting is, there are a lot of people to try to explain the reason of long periodic presence on the world, put forward guess multifarious, without surprise not to have. For example, somebody thinks the cycle that grows periodic existence and macula activity is concerned, somebody thinks the digenesis that follows a person is concerned, return somebody to think the newer cycle that follows workshop and equipment is concerned, people still can guess long cycle is concerned with the fixed number of year of patent protection, from theoretic tell, any cycle inside macroscopical limits have to growing cycle more or less influence.

The innovation theory that Xiong Bite ever tried to use him gave out to growing cycle the explanation of a system, but innovation theory is indecipherable why a cycle is 55 years is not 75 years.