美智库：不断膨胀的高额债息负担对美国经济构成严峻挑战

在各界担忧声中，美国联邦政府债务规模近日突破了35万亿美元大关。由于债务规模不断攀升、美联储长期维持高利率，美国联邦政府的借贷成本正在不断上升。美国彼得·彼得森基金会警告称，长期国债利息负担已成为联邦政府财政预算的沉重拖累，并将对美国长期经济前景构成重大挑战。

The Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest-rate hiking campaign, aimed at quelling inflation, has made debt more expensive to issue for the federal government. The interest burden on outstanding US debt remained a major drag on the budget. Interest costs in the first 10 months of the fiscal year totaled $956 billion, up 32% from 2023.
美联储旨在抑制通胀而激进加息，增加了联邦政府的发债成本。未偿美债的利息负担仍然是政府预算的主要“累赘”。本财年美国国债前10个月的利息成本总计为9560亿美元，较2023财年同期增长32%。

The growth in interest costs presents a significant challenge in the long-term as well. According to CBO’s most recent long-term projections, interest payments would total around $78 trillion over the next 30 years and would take up 34 percent of all federal revenues by 2054. Interest costs would also become the largest “program” over the next few decades — surpassing Social Security in 2051.
美国彼得·彼得森基金会认为，美国国债利息成本的增长对长期经济前景构成了重大挑战。根据美国国会预算办公室最新的长期预测，未来30年，美债利息支出总额将达到约78万亿美元，到2054年将占联邦财政收入的34%。利息成本也将成为未来几十年最大的 “支出项”，到2051年将超过社会保障投入。

Ballooning interest costs threaten to crowd out important public investments that can fuel economic growth in the future. CBO estimates that by 2054, interest costs are projected to be nearly three times what the federal government has historically spent on R&D, nondefense infrastructure, and education, combined.
彼得·彼得森基金会指出，不断膨胀的利息成本有可能会挤占能够促进未来经济增长的重要公共投资。国会预算办公室估计，到 2054 年，利息成本预计将是联邦政府历来在研发、非国防基础设施和教育方面支出总和的近三倍。

The long-term fiscal challenges facing the United States are serious. As interest rates rise and the nation’s debt grows, it will become even more expensive to borrow in the future.
该基金会称，美国面临的长期财政挑战十分严峻。随着利率的上升和债务的增加，未来的借贷成本将更加高昂。

 

英文来源：Fortune, Peter G. Peterson Foundation

编辑：小静

审校：妮妮 三石哥